Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda

Decision making for climate change management seldom incorporates uncertainty in the analysis that underpins the policy process. First, uncertainty is seldom characterised fully, and attempts to reduce uncertainty—when this is possible—are rare. Second, scientists are ill-equipped to communicate about uncertainty with policy makers, and policy makers most often favour pretended certainty over nuance and detail. Third, the uncertainty analysis that may have been conducted most often fails to actually influence policy in a significant manner. The case is made for (i) characterising and, to the extent possible, reducing uncertainty, (ii) communicating uncertainty, and (iii) reflecting uncertainty in the design of policy initiatives for climate change management. Possible elements for a research agenda on each of these areas are proposed.

Authors:Daniel Puig, Fatemeh Bakhtiari
Status:Accepted/In press
Published year:2019
Content type:Journal article
DOI:Visit
Orbit ID:9ffddb7d-04fa-454b-ba7b-2c71c6be1c9e
Is current:Current
No. of pages:4