Evaluability of large-scale grid-connected renewable power projects

In early 2017, UDP led a small consortium with the Stockholm Environment Institute (Kenya) and Synergy Global Consulting (South Africa) to conduct an ‘evaluability’ of the Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP) Project in Kenya for the Netherlands Development Finance Company (FMO). The objectives of this evaluability assignment were:

• To assess the availability and quality of information, as a key determinant of the difficulty and time required to conduct an evaluation
• To provide the basis for designing and implementing a possible rigorous evaluation, including the options for evaluation questions, methods, resources and expertise
• To enquire into the feasibility, clarity, adequacy, and usefulness of the Theory of Change prepared by FMO
• To help the FMO decide whether or not to go ahead with a fully-fledged rigorous project evaluation, including indicative timelines and budget

Given the scale and novelty of the LTWP project, we concluded that a full project evaluation should be designed as a means to an end, as opposed to an academic exercise of understanding impact alone. With this in mind, an eventual project evaluation could serve different purposes. More specifically, an evaluation could be conducted as a means to inform change in the way LTWP runs its future business, as well as creating an opportunity to communicate lessons learned and good practices for the benefit of other developers and operators pursuing similar projects elsewhere in Africa.

These two distinct purposes reflect the fact that LTWP is a novel project in Africa, in terms of scale and location, providing significant learning opportunities. At a broader level, evaluations can help us understand how such projects contribute to the transition to low-carbon energy systems in Africa, in support of the relevant SDGs.